Pa 10:00 nthawi ya Beijing, Purezidenti wa Russia Vladimir Putin adanena kuti adaganiza zoyendetsa ntchito yapadera yankhondo m'chigawo cha Donbas kum'mawa kwa Ukraine.Posakhalitsa, kuphulika kunamveka m'dera la Boryspil Airport ku Kiev, likulu la Ukraine, ku Kyiv, Odessa, Kharkov, Kramatorsk ndi Berdyansk, zomwe zikuwonetsa mayiko a Russia ndi Ulaya ku Ulaya.Mikangano yapakati pa mayiko awiriwa yakula kwambiri.Dziko lonse la Ukraine lili pankhondo.
Pofika nthawi yosindikizira, mtengo wa TTF wa ku Europe wa gasi wakwera mpaka ma euro 114 pa MWh.Ndi kusintha kwakukulu kotani komwe kuwonekera kwa zomwe zikuchitika ku Russia-Ukraine kumabweretsa bizinesi yoyera yamagetsi kunyumba ndi kunja, ndipo zingakhudze bwanji kuthamanga kwa m'malo mwa mphamvu zachikhalidwe mu mafakitale amagetsi a photovoltaic ndi mphepo?Pakalipano, zikuyembekezeka kuti mitengo yamtengo wapatali ya zinthu zina za photovoltaic idzauka, ndipo kufunikira kwa mphepo ndi dzuwa ku Ulaya ndi malo ena kudzawonjezereka.
Mitengo yapadera ya gasi imatha kukwera, kutumiza ndizovuta ndipo mitengo imakhalabe yokwera
M'malo mwake, Ukraine ndiye gwero la mpweya wapadera wopanga semiconductor padziko lonse lapansi, chifukwa chake kuseri kwa mkanganowu kudzakhudza kusowa kwa mpweya wapadera wamagetsi womwe umagwiritsidwa ntchito mu semiconductors.Zogulitsa za semiconductor ndizofunikanso zopangira zopangira ma photovoltaic monga ma inverters.Kodi m'tsogolomu padzakhala zinthu zingapo?
Ukraine ili ndi gawo lalikulu la misika yamafuta a neon, xenon, ndi krypton, ndipo mkanganowu upangitsa kuti malo ena apadera opangira gasi asagwire ntchito kapena kuonongeka.
Opanga ma semiconductor angapo adanena kuti chifukwa mpweya wapadera umapezeka kuchokera kumayiko ambiri, kuphatikiza Ukraine, palibe kusowa kwa zinthu pakanthawi kochepa.Mtsogoleri wamkulu wa Micron Melotta adanena poyankhulana ndi Bloomberg News kuti gawo lina la mpweya wabwino limachokera ku Ukraine, koma kufufuza kwakukulu kwakonzedwa, ndipo chofunika kwambiri, kampaniyo ili ndi magwero angapo, kuphatikizapo United States, European Union ndi Asia.Akukhulupirira kuti kampaniyo ikupitiliza kuwunika momwe zinthu ziliri ndipo akuyembekeza kuti zichepa.SK Hynix idawululanso kuti yapeza kuchuluka kwa mpweya wa inert, kotero palibe chifukwa chodera nkhawa kwambiri.Koma ngakhale kufunikira kungafanane ndi kupezeka, sikungalephereke kuti mpweya wina wabwino udzawona kuwonjezeka kwamitengo.Mtengo wa neon, mankhwala, unakwera pambuyo pa mkangano wapakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine mu 2014, pamene mtengo unali $3,500 pa kiyubiki mita, kuposa nthawi 10 kuposa kale.
Ndi kukula kwa mkangano pakati pa mayiko awiriwa, mtengo wa golidi wakwera kwambiri.Zopangira zazikulu zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri ndi phala la siliva zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito mu mphamvu ya dzuwa ndi ufa wasiliva, womwe umalumikizidwa ndi mtengo wasiliva waku London.Palibe nkhani zakukwera kwakukulu kwamitengo yasiliva pano.Choncho, mu nthawi yochepa, palibe chizindikiro cha phala siliva mitengo ikukwera.
Kodi zomwe zikuchitika ku Russia-Ukraine zidzakhudza bwanji mayendedwe otengera, makamaka pazinthu zatsopano zamagetsi?
Malinga ndi owonera a Fang, mitengo yonyamula katundu panyanja ikhalabe yokwera.M'zaka ziwiri zapitazi, mtengo wakwera ndi 4, 5 nthawi kapena kuposa.Kukwera kwaposachedwa kwamitengo yamafuta kungakhudze kukwera kwa mtengo wa dizilo, zopangira zonyamulira zotengera, koma ngakhale mwini sitimayo akweza mtengo pa izi, sizikhudza mtengo wotumizira womwe ulipo.Kuchulukitsa sikudzakhala kokulirapo.Komabe, mndandanda wamitengo yotumizira ziwiya sudzatsika pakanthawi kochepa, kuchuluka kwa zotumizira kupitilira kulimbikitsidwa, ndipo njira zotumizira zotengera zizikhala zolimba.Kumbali imodzi, chifukwa cha zovuta zosinthika za Omicron, mliri m'maiko ambiri a ku Europe udapitilirabe kufalikira, ndipo kuchuluka kwa milandu yomwe yangopezeka kumene kumapangitsa kuti zinthu za kunja zikhale zapamwamba kwambiri, ndipo msika wotumizira unali wabwino kwambiri.Pothana ndi chiwopsezo cha nkhondo zakomweko, Europe ikhoza kuchulukirachulukira, ndikupangitsa kuti kufunikira kwa ma ton-nautical miles kuchuluke.Pazonse, kuchuluka kwa ziwiya kumakhala kochepa kwambiri, ndipo kuthekera kwamitengo yapanyanja sikukwera, ndipo ndizotheka kusunga momwe zinthu ziliri kapena kukwera pang'ono.
Mphamvu yamphepo ya Photovoltaic, ndi zina, kusintha kwamphamvu kwapadziko lonse lapansi kukukulirakulira
Kuyamba kwa nkhondo yapakati iyi pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine kudzakhala ndi zotsatira zabwino pa kuthamangitsidwa kwa mphamvu zatsopano m'malo mwa mphamvu zachikhalidwe.Tsiku lonse lero, masheya atsopano amphamvu adawonetsa kuwonjezeka.Gulu la Zhongli, Sungrow, Trina Solar, Risen Energy, Foster, JinkoSolar, JA Technology, LONGi, GoodWe, Chint Electric, Zhonghuan, ndi Jolywood onse adanyamuka kumapeto.PV 50ETF idapeza 1.53%.
Mitengo ya gasi wachilengedwe yakwera kwambiri posachedwapa.Iyi si nkhani yabwino ku dera la ku Ulaya, kumene mitengo ya gasi yakwera pafupifupi kanayi m’chaka chathachi.Pakalipano, gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu a gasi wachilengedwe ku Ulaya amachokera ku gasi wachilengedwe, ndipo geopolitics yakulitsa vuto loperekeranso.Pofika 4 koloko masana lero, mitengo ya gasi yachilengedwe yaku Dutch TTF idakwera gawo lachinayi motsatizana, kukwera mpaka 41% tsiku limodzi.Purezidenti wa US a Joe Biden adatinso achita zina zolanga Russia.Zilango zilizonse zomwe zingalepheretse dziko la Russia kupeza ndalama zakunja zitha kukweza misika yamafuta, gasi ndi zinthu monga zitsulo ndi mbewu.
Kudalira kwa gasi wachilengedwe ku Europe ndikokwera kwambiri, kufika 90%.Choncho, panthawi ino pamene mtengo wa gasi ukukwera, ogwiritsa ntchito mafakitale, magetsi ndi kutentha omwe amazoloŵera kugwiritsa ntchito gasi adzafunafuna njira zotetezeka zothetsera zosowa zawo.Kusintha kwa mphamvu zatsopano monga mphamvu ya dzuwa kudzafulumizitsidwa.
Wood Mackenzie wanena kuti ndi kuchuluka kwa mphamvu zamagetsi zosinthika, Europe ili ndi njira zinayi zosinthira ma gridi: ma pumped hydro, magetsi achilengedwe okwera kwambiri.Rory McCarthy, katswiri wamkulu wa bungweli, anati, "Kwa machitidwe amakono amagetsi, magetsi achilengedwe amatha kutulutsa mphamvu zonse m'mphindi ziwiri, ndipo amatha kugwira ntchito pang'onopang'ono ndikuwonjezera mphamvu ndipo amatha kupereka mphamvu kwa nthawi yopitilira malire yopanda malire.Cholinga chake ndikupereka gasi kosalekeza.”
Koma pofika chaka cha 2030, kusungirako mphamvu za batri kudzadutsa nsonga za gasi wachilengedwe ngati njira yotsika mtengo kwambiri yolumikizira gridi yaku Europe.Mphamvu zosungiramo mphamvu m'magawo onse ku Ulaya zikuyembekezeka kukula kuchokera ku 3GW yamakono (kupatulapo pumped hydro) kufika ku 26GW pofika 2030 ndi 89GW pofika 2040. McCarthy adanena kuti pofika 2040, Ulaya akhoza kukhala ndi 320GWh ya mphamvu yosungirako mphamvu yomwe ikupezeka kuti igwirizane ndi mphamvu zamagetsi. .Ambiri aiwo adzachokera ku machitidwe osungira mphamvu a batire ambali."Mafuta ndi malasha opangira magetsi adzakweranso, ndipo ndondomeko zotulutsa mpweya wa zero pamapeto pake zidzalunjika ku decarbonisation ya ntchito zonse zamsika wamagetsi," adatero McCarthy.
Kampani yofufuza za Bloomberg New Energy Finance inapereka lipoti la kafukufuku, lomwe linanena kuti: Ku United States, pamene malo opangira magetsi a dzuwa akupitirira kufalikira ndi kudya nthawi yogwiritsira ntchito magetsi a gasi, malo opangira magetsi a gasi amafunika kuti ayambitsenso komanso kutseka pafupipafupi.Izi zimawonjezera mtengo wogwiritsira ntchito chifukwa cha mafuta ofunikira komanso kuwonongeka.
Pakali pano, pamene mtengo wa gasi wachilengedwe uli wokwera kwambiri, osunga ndalama adzakhala ochenjera posankha ngati angasinthe njira yatsopano yopangira magetsi kuti apewe vuto la zipangizo zotsika mtengozi.
N’zoona kuti anthu amene amagulitsa gasi kunja sakufuna kuti zinthu zipitirire.Apezanso njira zopangira kuti mitengo ya gasi ikhale yokwera mopanda mopusa, apo ayi kutumiza gasi wachilengedwe kunja kumakhala vuto pakangochitika ngozi ya mafakitale ndi magetsi.
Poyerekeza ndi gawo loyamba la mkangano wa Russia-Ukraine mu 2014 (January 19, 2014 mpaka March 20, 2014), pakuchita magulu akuluakulu a chuma, mitengo yamtengo wapatali yakwera kwambiri, mpaka 7.6%.Mtengo wa mafuta osakanizidwa unakwera ndi 4.2%, ndipo mtengo wa golidi unakwera ndi 6.1% (kuchokera ku Haitong Securities.) Mtengo wopitirira wamtengo wapatali wa mafuta osakanizidwa udzapangitsanso kugwiritsa ntchito magalimoto amagetsi, magalimoto oyera, ndi zina zotero.
Pankhani ya chitukuko chamtsogolo cha mphamvu zatsopano, makamaka makampani a photovoltaic, chaka chino chidzapitirizabe kusintha.Pa February 23, maphwando oyenerera adaneneratu kuti mphamvu ya photovoltaic yomwe yangoikidwa kumene mu 2022 ikhoza kuwonjezeka mpaka 75GW, yomwe ili pafupi 75-90GW.Mtengo uwu umafananizidwa ndi zomwe National Energy Administration inanena - mphamvu ya photovoltaic yatsopano ya dziko mu 2021 idzakhala pafupifupi 55GW, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi 36% -64%.Panthawi imodzimodziyo, akuyerekeza kuti kuyambira 2022 mpaka 2025, dziko langa latsopano lapachaka la photovoltaic lidzafika ku 83-99GW.Malinga ndi deta yochokera ku Unduna wa Zamakampani ndi Ukadaulo Wachidziwitso, mu 2021, dziko langa kupanga ma photovoltaic a polysilicon, ma silicon wafers, ma cell, ndi ma module afika matani 505,000, 227GW, 198GW, ndi 182GW, motsatana, mpaka 27.5%, 40.6%, 46.9%, ndi 46.1% pachaka.Kutumiza kwapachaka kwa zinthu za photovoltaic kudaposa madola 28.4 biliyoni aku US.
Malinga ndi lipoti laposachedwa la kafukufuku wa CITIC Construction Investment, mphamvu yapakhomo ya photovoltaic yomwe idayikidwa mu Januwale 2022 idaposa zomwe zidalipo, ndipo mphamvu yatsopano yokhazikitsidwa ndi photovoltaic mdziko muno idaposa 7GW, kuwonjezeka kwachaka ndi 200%.Pakati pawo, mphamvu yomwe yangoikidwa kumene ya photovoltaics yogawidwa inali 4.5GW, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi 250%;mphamvu yatsopano ya photovoltaics yapakati inali 2.5GW, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi chaka ndi 150%.Zida zam'mwamba za silicon, ma silicon wafers, mabatire akumunsi, ma modules, komanso ma inverters ndi zipangizo zothandizira, maulalo onse muzitsulo zamafakitale nthawi zambiri amakhala odzaza ndi malamulo, ndipo kuchuluka kwa ntchito sikutsika koma kumakwera.Chikhalidwe cha chaka chino chikhoza kukhala "chosafooka".
Kulemba izi, tikuyembekeza kuti anthu a ku Ukraine adziteteze okha ndi mabanja awo, azigwiritsa ntchito nthawi yapaderayi motetezeka, ndi kubwerera kapena kupeza nyumba yamtendere mwamsanga.
Nthawi yotumiza: Mar-12-2022